Guides / What Is Fold Equity?
What Is Fold Equity?
Published How these ranges are solved
Fold equity is the equity you win from your opponent folding their hand. It is the probability that they fold their hand, multiplied by the size of the pot.
How do you calculate fold equity?
Your hand's total equity, therefore, is your fold equity - how often they fold, multiplied by the size of the pot - plus your equity when called: how often they call, multiplied by your hand's equity against their calling range.
Fold equity
how often they fold×the size of the pot
Equity when called
how often they call×your equity against their calling range
Why is fold equity important?
Fold equity is a crucial part of the EV that many of your hands can expect to gain. As mentioned earlier, a hand's total equity is the fold equity you have plus your hand's equity when called - and these two values are very related.
The more your opponents fold, the higher your fold equity - and the less your equity when called will be. As a result of this, it becomes clear that we do not always want to maximise fold equity. The value of fold equity changes based on your hand.
For example, with aces preflop, most of that hand's value comes from the times we are called - the goal there is not fold equity. A hand at the bottom of our opening range, say J8o on the button, gains a much larger portion of its value from fold equity.
AA preflop
Value comes from
Equity when called
A fold is the worst outcome available. You want the call.
J8o on the button
Value comes from
Fold equity
Called, it is usually behind. Most of what it earns, it earns uncalled.
How does this tie into short-stacked play and push/fold strategy?
When you're short stacked, the value of fold equity increases significantly. With a 10bb stack, winning 2.5bb - a big blind, a half small blind, and a 1bb ante - is a 25% increase in your stack. That is massive. It is why understanding your push/fold ranges and making sure we don't miss any opportunities is crucial.
+25%
What a 10bb stack gains by taking down 2.5bb of blinds and antes uncalled - a quarter of your stack, without seeing a card.
This also means your opponents' player tendencies become crucial to having a profitable strategy. If your opponents start folding more than they should, a lot more hands become very valuable - which is exactly what the exploit solves measure, and what exploiting tight and loose opponents works through hand by hand.
Every solved shove range on this site is fold equity and equity-when-called already priced against each other, for every position and stack depth.
Common questions
- What is fold equity in poker?
- Fold equity is the equity you win from your opponent folding their hand. It's the probability that they fold, multiplied by the size of the pot you pick up when they do.
- How do you calculate fold equity?
- Multiply how often your opponent folds by the size of the pot. That figure is only half of what the hand is worth, though - the other half is your equity when called, which is how often they call multiplied by your hand's equity against their calling range. Add the two together for the hand's total equity.
- Why does fold equity matter?
- Fold equity is a crucial part of the EV that many of your hands can expect to gain. A hand's total equity is the fold equity you have plus your equity when called, and those two values are closely related - what you give up in one, you tend to gain back in the other.
- Do you always want to maximise fold equity?
- No. The more your opponents fold, the higher your fold equity and the lower your equity when called, so the value of fold equity changes depending on the hand you hold. Most of aces' value comes from the times you get called, so fold equity isn't the goal there. A hand at the bottom of your opening range gains a much larger portion of its value from folds.
- Why does fold equity matter more when you're short stacked?
- Because the blinds and antes are large relative to what you have left. Shoving a 10bb stack and taking down 2.5bb uncalled - a big blind, a half small blind, and a big blind ante - grows your stack by 25% without seeing a card. That is why not missing push/fold spots matters so much once you get short.