What Is Fold Equity in Poker?

Fold equity is the value a bet or shove gains from making an opponent fold. In an expected-value calculation, the fold branch is the probability of a fold multiplied by the pot you win immediately.

How do you calculate fold equity?

A shove has two branches: your opponent folds, or your opponent calls. Shove EV combines the value of both branches, including the pot you win when they fold and the amount you win or lose when called.

A worked shove EV example

For one opponent with no further betting, let P be the pot before the shove, B the additional amount you risk, C the additional amount your opponent calls, F their fold probability, and E your showdown equity including ties. Already posted chips belong in P.

EV = F × P + (1 − F) × [E × (P + C) − (1 − E) × B]

With P = 3bb, B = 10bb, C = 9bb, E = 40% and F = 50%, the called branch is 0.4 × 12 − 0.6 × 10 = −1.2bb. Total shove EV is 0.5 × 3 + 0.5 × (−1.2) = +0.9bb. If always called, EV is −1.2bb. With zero showdown equity, the same shove needs 10 / 13, or about 76.9%, folds to break even. The calculator takes percentages; the equation uses probabilities from 0 to 1. This is chip-EV, not an ICM or side-pot model.

Why is fold equity important?

Fold equity is one part of a shove's EV. The other is the result when called, which depends on your hand's equity against the calling range and the amount at risk.

A tighter calling range often reduces your showdown equity when called. The effect depends on which hands stop calling, so more folds do not always mean less showdown equity. Compare the net value of both branches for the hand you hold.

For example, with aces preflop, most of that hand's value comes from the times we are called - the goal there is not fold equity. A hand at the bottom of our opening range, say J8o on the button, gains a much larger portion of its value from fold equity.

Why does fold equity matter more when you're short?

When you're short stacked, the value of fold equity increases significantly. With a 10bb stack, winning 2.5bb - a big blind, a half small blind, and a 1bb ante - is a 25% increase in your stack. That is massive. It is why understanding your push/fold ranges and making sure we don't miss any opportunities is crucial.

It also runs out. The shorter you get, the more often you're called, which is why waiting for a big hand is so costly - see when to shove in a tournament for every seat from 4bb to 15bb.

This also means your opponents' player tendencies become crucial to having a profitable strategy. If your opponents start folding more than they should, a lot more hands become very valuable - which is exactly what the exploit solves measure, and what exploiting tight and loose opponents works through hand by hand.

Want to check a specific shove? Use the fold equity calculator to solve the minimum fold percentage from the pot, risk, call amount, and your equity when called.