Hand odds / AQ vs 44

AQ vs 44: odds and equity

In short

44 wins 53.4% of the time against AQo all in before the flop, AQo wins 46.1%, and they split the pot 0.5% of the time. 44 is a small favourite. With AQs vs 44 the split is 48.9% to 51.1% in equity.

AQo

46.3%

vs

44

53.7%

Equity: win% plus half of the 0.5% split pots. 44 is a small favourite.

Every suit combination

MatchupHand 1 winsHand 2 winsSplitHand 1 equity
AQs vs 4448.7%50.8%0.5%48.9%
AQo vs 4446.1%53.4%0.5%46.3%

What the flop does to it

When no A or Q comes on the flop (76.3% of flops), 44 has 64.7% equity going to the turn. When one does, 44 drops to 18.2%.

AQo has two overcards, so six cards in the deck pair it. That's why it's a race rather than a big favourite: plenty of flops give AQo a pair.

When this all-in happens in push/fold

At 10BB in 6-max, the Button shoves AQo always and the Big Blind calls with 44 always, so this exact all-in comes straight off the charts.

How often each hand shoves or calls in our solved 6-max chip-EV charts. A row with both columns high is a spot where this exact all-in is correct for both players. See every chart.

Common questions

Who is the favourite, AQ or 44?
44. All in preflop it has 53.7% equity against AQo: 53.4% wins plus half of the 0.5% split pots. That's a small favourite.
Do suits change the odds?
A little. AQs vs 44 is 48.9% to 51.1%; AQo vs 44 is 46.3% to 53.7%. Suited hands make more flushes, which is worth a few percent.
What happens on the flop?
When no A or Q comes on the flop (76.3% of flops), 44 has 64.7% equity going to the turn. When one does, 44 drops to 18.2%.
When does AQ vs 44 happen in push/fold?
At 10BB in 6-max, the Button shoves AQo always and the Big Blind calls with 44 always, so this exact all-in comes straight off the charts.
How were these odds worked out?
By counting every possible five-card board for every combination of suits: 72 card combinations for AQo vs 44, 1,712,304 boards each. The numbers are exact, not simulated.

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