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Satellite ICM Calculator

Enter every stack left and how many seats are paid. Every seat is worth exactly the same, so what comes out is each stack's real probability of winning one.

Field

9 players · 72,800 chips
25.3%
19.5%
16.2%
13.2%
9.9%
5.9%
4.3%
3.3%
2.5%

Seats paid

of 9 players win a seat - every seat is worth the same.

Satellite equity updated for 9 players.

Chance of winning a seat

Player 1
65.3%
Player 2
55.6%
Player 3
48.8%
Player 4
41.5%
Player 5
32.6%
Player 6
20.5%
Player 7
15.0%
Player 8
11.8%
Player 9
8.9%

Flat payouts, so this percentage is exactly the probability of finishing in the top 3 - there's no bigger or smaller seat to weight for.

Why satellites play differently

In a normal tournament, doubling up is always worth something - more chips means more equity, even if the payout curve makes chips worth progressively less. In a satellite, that stops being true once a stack is deep enough that it's already almost certain to win a seat. From there, doubling up buys nothing: the outcome is still “one seat.” Busting, on the other hand, loses everything. That asymmetry is what makes the objective near a satellite bubble survival, not accumulation.

It's also why satellite bubble play looks so different from a normal bubble: medium stacks tighten hard against covering all-ins, and the biggest stacks at the table are often the ones with the least incentive to apply pressure, since they have the most seat equity to protect and the least to gain by risking it.

This calculator prices the seat equity for a stack distribution you already have. Full ICM practice in the app covers ordinary bubble and final-table spots too, not just satellites.

Practice ICM spots free →

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