Tools / Bubble Factor Calculator

Bubble Factor Calculator

Enter the stacks left and the payouts still in the pool. The matrix below shows the real equity every player needs against every other player to call an all-in - not a rule of thumb, the actual ICM math for this exact table.

Players remaining

6 players · 65,500 chips
28.1%
21.7%
18.0%
14.7%
11.0%
6.6%

Payouts (place 1, 2, 3...)

Pool: $5,900
#1
#2
#3

Bubble factors updated for 6 players.

Required equity to call an all-in

Rows are hero, columns are villain - click a name above to set who's deciding, or just read any cell as “row calls column’s shove.”

Bubble factor for each hero and villain pairing.
Hero \ VillainPlayer 1Player 2Player 3Player 4Player 5Player 6
Player 1-60.0%57.7%55.7%54.0%52.1%
Player 262.7%-58.6%56.4%54.3%52.3%
Player 361.1%59.9%-56.7%54.5%52.4%
Player 459.3%58.2%57.5%-54.6%52.5%
Player 557.2%56.3%55.7%55.3%-52.5%
Player 654.4%53.9%53.5%53.2%52.9%-

Each all-in is modeled for the smaller of the two stacks (the chips actually changing hands). Cells in orange need real equity, not a coin flip, to call profitably.

Why the matrix isn't symmetric

Reading a row is asking “what does this player need to call a shove?” The same two players, read as different rows, almost never need the same number. A short stack calling a covering stack's shove is risking its entire tournament for a double-up that's worth less, per chip, than the chips it's risking - that needs real equity. The covering stack calling the short stack back is risking a much smaller fraction of its own equity for the same double-up - that's much closer to a coin flip.

This is exactly the effect a chip-EV push/fold chart can't see: two hands can look identical in isolation and require completely different equity once the payout structure and both stacks are priced in.

This calculator answers “what equity do I need” for a spot you already have. Building the instinct for which hands actually clear that bar, position by position, is what ICM practice in the app trains.

Practice ICM spots free →

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